Pasó el pánico ¿y ahora qué?

Comentario, 27 de julio, Jos Algra

El precio de café en Nueva York tuvo unos movimientos nunca antes vistos en las últimas 3 semanas. Nada de Elliot Wave en formación como se analizó como una o

posibilidad en el blog de hace 3 semanas (Pánico dispara rally inesperado). Todo lo contrario, el precio siguió subiendo de manera espectacular hasta tocar los 341.80 centavos. 

De allí se les acabó el gas a los fondos, el movimiento del precio se convirtió en un montaña rusa y se luego se desarrolló lateralmente alrededor de los 300 centavos. El viernes pasado el cierre fue justo debajo en 298.05.

Estamos usando la segunda posición diciembre, porque septiembre está a un fuerte premio de 13 a 20 centavos y es aún más volátil. El First Notice Day es hasta el 22 de agosto.

Después de meses de estar a la baja, el precio en Nueva York comenzó a subir a mediados de junio. El aumento del precio se aceleró a partir del 30 de junio. Causando cierto pánico en la bolsa y el 6 de julio el precio explotó, llegando al precio más alto en 5 meses y medio.

La principal causa es, como muchas veces, el tiempo en Brasil. Exceso de lluvias que retrasan la cosecha en Brasil y otros países, como Perú. Productores brasileños que retienen café, porque no saben cuánto café van a tener y de qué calidad. Preocupación por el posible impacto de El Niño en la próxima cosecha. Miércoles y jueves el precio bajó, entre otros por el reporte de FAS USDA que pronostica un fuerte excedente en la nueva cosecha.

La inestabilidad geopolítica, la crisis energética por la guerra en Medio Oriente, la paridad del dólar con el real brasileño y otras monedas, los bajos inventarios, los constantes cambios en las políticas de Trump y el anuncio de nuevas tarifas, etc. Después del bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz por Estados Unidos e Irán, ahora también del estrecho de Bab al-Mandab entre Yemen y Yibuti, que da acceso al Mar Rojo y el Canal de Suez, por los Hutíes. 

Todo impacta en los mercados financieros y la economía mundial, aumenta los precios de casi todos los productos y servicios, mucha volatilidad en los precios de materias primas. 

Pero hay otro factor importante: los margin calls (los márgenes) en la bolsa. En la semana del 6 de julio, cuando explotó el precio de café, se aumentó el margen dos veces, forzando a muchos a abandonar sus posiciones por falta de liquidez, sobre todo comerciantes, con productores y tostadores detrás. Con eso los especuladores, que tienen bolsas más profundas, tuvieron las manos libres para mover el precio a su conveniencia. 

El precio en el mercado de futuros se desligó aún más del precio en el mercado físico. Esto aceleró enormemente el aumento del precio y aumentó fuertemente la volatilidad. El 6 de julio la Banda de Bollinger tuvo un acho de 94.35 centavos, de 214.55 a 308.90.

Los movimientos en el mercado fueron espectaculares, violentos y únicos y se establecieron nuevos récords. De la baja el 9 de junio al máximo el 6 de julio el precio subió 110 centavos, de un mínimo de 231.80 a un máximo de 341.80, el precio más alto desde principios de enero. 

El 6 de julio el precio subió 49.10 centavos en el cierre (segunda posición diciembre), de 286.30 a 335.40. El récord anterior de variación en 1 día fue de 47.00 centavos. El mismo día la diferencia entre precio máximo y precio mínimo fue de 56.55 centavos (341.80-285.25). El récord anterior fue 35.05 centavos.

Para dónde se va a desarrollar el precio es difícil de pronosticar, como casi siempre. El viernes se formó un doji (ver el gráfico del precio diario abajo), porque la apertura y el cierre fueron casi iguales, el mercado no se decide si seguir lateralmente, bajar más o volver a subir. 

El gráfico diario está a punto de dar una señal de venta (el gráfico de 4 horas ya la dio el miércoles, 22 de julio) como se observa en el gráfico, porque el promedio móvil exponencial de 8 días está por caer debajo del promedio móvil simple de 20 días. Al otro lado, el precio se mantiene muy por encima del promedio móvil de 50 días. 

Soportes: 293.25, 285.25, 256.90, 250.55 y 231.80. Resistencias: 300.75 (eje). 319.95, 341.80.

El Commitment of Traders report muestra que el interés abierto de futuros y opciones combinados bajó en las últimas 3 semanas de 14,282 contratos de 234,963 a 220,681. El interés abierto de solo futuros bajó, de 180,244 a 163,222 el jueves pasado. El máximo se alcanzó en la primera mitad de junio con 215,469, para agarrar impulso para el rally impresionante. El volumen diario alcanzó hasta 91 mil contratos cuando el precio estuvo en su auge, luego bajó a alrededor de 30 mil.

La posición neta de los fondos de nuevo ha salido del territorio negativo, subió a 10,583 netos largos. Los spreads, que reflejan el grado en que cada operador no comercial mantiene posiciones largas y cortas combinadas, inicialmente subieron a 106,349,pero luego bajaron a 90,569. Muestra que muchos fondos no están tomando posición ahora.

La posición larga de los comerciales, bajó 5,749 lotes a 52,582. Los tostadores se rehúyen a fijar con estos niveles de precio. Además estamos entrando a la época de verano en los principales país consumidores, cuando el consumo tradicionalmente baja. 

La posición corta de los comerciales subió, con 3,539 lotes a 99,328. La semana anterior. Cuando los precios estuvieron más altos, estuvo en 102,586. Los productores aprovecharon el rally del precio para fijar contratos.

Los fondos de índice volvieron a la carga, agregando 5,181 contratos para una posición neta larga de 34432. Casi todo por agregar largos. 

Las tarifas de importación especiales del gobierno de Trump expiraron, muchas fueron eliminados por la corte suprema de justicia, por carecer de base legal. Trump anunció nuevas tarifas de 10% o 12.5% para 60 países, entre otros con el argumento que no hacen lo suficiente para eliminar el trabajo forzado. A ver si el argumento es aceptado por la corte.

El café verde está exento y café instantáneo de Brasil también. A Brasil se le impone una tarifa de 25% por razones políticas (no quiere a Lula, apoya a Bolsonaro) y se teme que Nicaragua también vaya a tener una tarifa más alta por el anuncio del gobierno de Ortega que ya no van a haber elecciones. 

La Comisión Europea agregó justamente varios productos entre ellos el café instantáneo a la lista que tiene que cumplir con las reglas de EUDR (contra deforestación) a partir del 30 de diciembre 2027. El Parlamento Europeo todavía puede oponerse a las medidas.

Mientras Brasil ha visto bajar las exportaciones de café arábica natural, Etiopía ha llenado en parte el hueco, aumentado el volumen de exportación. China ha rebasado a Estados Unidos como tercer país destino, detrás de Arabia Saudita y Alemania. Las exportaciones a China crecieron 30% el año -asado, gracias a una fuerte campaña de promoción contra los líos con las tarifas en Estados Unidos. 

El consumo en China está creciendo mucho, sobre todo entre los jóvenes, que va a impactar más en el futuro. China está realizando fuertes inversiones en Etiopía y, junto con Uganda se está invirtiendo en aumentar la producción, como hemos reportado anteriormente (Analizando la caída del precio, El precio se recupera, la economía se deteriora y la visión de la OIC).

Perú tiene fuertes tensiones en el mercado interno de café. La cosecha se ha retrasado y hay una creciente competencia por el poco pergamino que está disponible, que hace subir los precios internos. En la región de San Martín, Amazonas, la cosecha tiene un avance de un 70%, pero en el resto del país solo 35-45%. Se esperaba que la producción bajara esta cosecha entre 10% y 20%, pero ahora se está analizando que podría bajar hasta en un 40%.

Los altos precios internos todavía no se reflejan mucho en los diferenciales de exportación. Como casi todo el café se procesa en finca y se acopia en pergamino seco, los productores pueden retener el café, esperando un mejor precio.

Se teme un incremento de los defaults de septiembre en adelante. 

El 22 de julio FAS USDA ha publicado su reporte anual sobre oferta y demanda mundial de café. En blogs de mayo y junio hemos presentado datos de los reportes por país y un balance de oferta y demanda mundial provisional (vean El pronóstico de FAS USDA y malas noticias para el precio y Analizando la caída del precio). Si quieren armar sus propias tablas dinámicas, la base de datos desde 1960 se encuentra aquí: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads.

Contiene un análisis de la situación en Brasil, resume los cambios en los volúmenes de Vietnam, Centroamérica y México, Colombia, Etiopía, Indonesia y a nivel mundial Si no manejan el inglés, van a necesitar un traductor.

Con los datos completos, la tabla de oferta y demanda sería así (en miles de sacos):

La oferta aumentará 10.8 millones de sacos (5.7%) a 189.7 millones. La demanda incrementará 6.3 millones de sacos (3.5%) a 179.7 millones. Resultará un excedente de 9.9 millones de sacos, casi el doble de los años anteriores.

Hemos comentado en el pasado que FAS USDA presenta la mayoría de las veces un excedente, la única excepción aquí son los ciclos 2021/22 y 2022/23. Esto en los últimos años sería poco probable, viendo la escasez en el mercado y los muy altos precios desde septiembre 2024 (arriba de 250). 

Es posible que se haya guardado café para hacer subir el precio, pero en los últimos 3 ciclos sería un acumulado adicional de más de 15 millones de sacos extra en bodega, mientras se reporta bajos inventarios (24.4 millones de sacos en el ciclo pasado). Otras fuentes han reportado un déficits importantes desde 2022 y los señalan como principal causa de los altos precios.

Los datos de FAS USDA son muy completos y útiles y accesibles, sin ningún costo. Sobre todo la base de datos se presta para hacer diferentes tipos de análisis. Sin embargo, el sesgo sistemático en los datos le resta valor. Hemos comparado los datos de FAS USDA con los de la OIC (menos accesible, menos fácil de manejar y se tiene que pagar casi todo ahora), que tiene un sesgo parecido pero al revés: la mayoría de las veces la OIC reporta un déficit. Sacar un promedio entre las 2 fuentes es una forma sencilla para acercarse más a la verdad. 

Jos Algra es consultor internacional con más de 40 años de experiencia en café y trabajar con organizaciones de productores.

Este blog fue publicado originalmente en Claase: https://claase.org/analisis-de-los-precios-del-cafe

Beyond the panic, and now what?

Comment, July 27, Jos Algra

The price of coffee in New York experienced unprecedented movements over the past three weeks. There was no Elliott Wave forming, as was analysed as a possibility in the blog post three weeks ago (Panic triggers unexpected rally). On the contrary, the price continued to rise spectacularly, reaching 341.80 cents.

From there, the funds ran out of steam, the price movement became volatile, and then settled sideways around 300 cents. Last Friday, the close was just below at 298.05.

We are using the second December position because September is at a steep premium of 13 to 20 cents and is even more volatile. The First Notice Day is August 22nd.

After months of decline, the price in New York began to rise in mid-June. The price increase accelerated after June 30th. Causing some panic on the stock market, the price exploded on July 6, reaching its highest level in five and a half months.

The main cause, as is often the case, is the weather in Brazil. Excessive rainfall is delaying the harvest in Brazil and other countries, such as Peru. Brazilian producers are holding onto coffee because they don’t know how much they will have and what its quality will be. There is also concern about the potential impact of El Niño on the next harvest. On Wednesday and Thursday, the price fell, partly due to the USDA FAS report forecasting a large surplus in the new harvest.

Other contributing factors include geopolitical instability, the energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Brazilian real and other currencies, low inventories, constant changes in Trump’s policies and the announcement of new tariffs, etc. Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States and Iran, the Houthis have now also blocked the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti, which provides access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

Everything impacts financial markets and the global economy, increasing the prices of almost all products and services, and causing significant volatility in commodity prices.

But there is another important factor: margin calls on the stock exchange. During the week of July 6, when the price of coffee exploded, margins were increased twice, forcing many to abandon their positions due to a lack of liquidity, especially traders, with producers and roasters following suit. This gave speculators, who have deeper pockets, free rein to manipulate the price as they saw fit.

The price in the futures market became even more decoupled from the price in the physical market. This greatly accelerated the price increase and significantly heightened volatility. On July 6, the Bollinger Band widened by 94.35 cents, from 214.55 to 308.90.

The market movements were spectacular, violent, and unprecedented, and new records were set. From the low on June 9th to the high on July 6th, the price rose 110 cents, from a low of 231.80 to a high of 341.80, the highest price since early January.

On July 6th, the price rose 49.10 cents at the close (second highest in December), from 286.30 to 335.40. The previous record for one-day change was 47.00 cents. On the same day, the difference between the high and low price was 56.55 cents (341.80-285.25). The previous record was 35.05 cents.

Where the price will move is difficult to predict, as is almost always the case. On Friday, a doji formed (see the daily price chart below), because the opening and closing prices were almost identical; the market is undecided whether to continue sideways, fall further, or rise again.

The daily chart is about to give a sell signal (the 4-hour chart already gave one on Wednesday, July 22nd), as can be seen in the chart, because the 8-day exponential moving average is about to fall below the 20-day simple moving average. On the other hand, the price remains well above the 50-day moving average.

Support: 293.25, 285.25, 256.90, 250.55, and 231.80. Resistance: 300.75 (pivot), 319.95, and 341.80.

The Commitment of Traders report shows that combined open interest in futures and options fell by 14,282 contracts over the past three weeks, from 234,963 to 220,681. Open interest in futures alone decreased from 180,244 to 163,222 last Thursday. The peak was reached in the first half of June at 215,469, providing the momentum for the impressive rally. Daily volume reached as high as 91,000 contracts when the price was at its peak, then dropped to around 30,000.

Net fund positions have moved back out of negative territory, rising to 10,583 net longs. Spreads, which reflect the degree to which each non-commercial trader holds combined long and short positions, initially rose to 106,349, but then fell to 90,569. This shows that many funds are not currently taking positions.

The long position of commercial traders fell by 5,749 lots to 52,582. Roasters are hesitant to lock in contracts at these price levels. Furthermore, we are entering the summer season in the main consuming countries, when consumption traditionally declines.

The short position of commercial traders rose by 3,539 lots to 99,328. Last week, when prices were higher, it stood at 102,586. Producers took advantage of the price rally to lock in contracts.

Index funds returned to the fray, adding 5,181 contracts for a net long position of 34,432. Almost all of it are longs.

The Trump administration’s special import tariffs have expired; many were struck down by the Supreme Court for lacking legal basis. Trump announced new tariffs of 10% or 12.5% ​​for 60 countries, among others, arguing that they are not doing enough to eliminate forced labour. We’ll see if the court accepts this argument.

Green coffee is exempt, as is instant coffee from Brazil. Brazil faces a 25% tariff for political reasons (the US opposes Lula and supports Bolsonaro), and there are fears that Nicaragua will also face a higher tariff due to the Ortega government’s announcement that elections will no longer be held.

The European Commission has precisely added several products, including instant coffee, to the list of those that must comply with EUDR (anti-deforestation) rules by December 30, 2027. The European Parliament can still oppose these measures.

While Brazil has seen its exports of natural Arabica coffee decline, Ethiopia has partially filled the gap, increasing its export volume. China has overtaken the United States as the third-largest destination, behind Saudi Arabia and Germany. Exports to China grew by 30% last year, thanks to a strong promotional campaign in response to the tariff disputes in the United States.

Consumption in China is growing significantly, especially among young people, which will have a greater impact in the future. China is making substantial investments in Ethiopia and, together with Uganda, is investing in increasing production, as we have previously reported (“Analysing the price drop” and “The price recovers, the economy deteriorates and ICO’s vision”).

Peru is experiencing significant tensions in its domestic coffee market. The harvest has been delayed, and there is increasing competition for the limited parchment coffee available, driving up domestic prices. In the San Martín region of Amazonas, the harvest is 70% complete, but in the rest of the country, it is only 35-45% complete. Production was expected to fall by 10-20% this harvest, but now it is being analysed that it could drop by as much as 40%.

The high domestic prices are not yet significantly reflected in export differentials. Since almost all coffee is processed on the farm and stored as dry parchment, producers can hold onto their coffee, waiting for a better price. There are fears of an increase in defaults from September onward.

On July 22 FAS USDA published its annual report on global coffee supply and demand. In blog posts from May and June, we presented data from the country-specific reports and a provisional global supply and demand balance (see “The FAS USDA forecast and bad news for the price” and “Analysing the price drop”). If you want to create your own pivot tables, the database dating back to 1960 is available here: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads.

It contains an analysis of the situation in Brazil, summarizes changes in volumes for Vietnam, Central America and Mexico, Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and globally. If you are not fluent in English, you will need a translator.

With the complete data, the supply and demand table would look like this (in thousands of bags):

Supply will increase by 10.8 million bags (5.7%) to 189.7 million. Demand will increase by 6.3 million bags (3.5%) to 179.7 million. This will result in a surplus of 9.9 million bags, almost double that of previous years.

We have commented in the past that the USDA FAS (Family Agricultural Standards) usually shows a surplus, the only exceptions being the 2021/22 and 2022/23 cycles. This would be unlikely in recent years, given the market shortage and the very high prices since September 2024 (above $250).

It is possible that coffee was stored to drive up the price, but in the last three cycles, this would represent an additional accumulation of more than 15 million extra bags in storage, while low inventories are reported (24.4 million bags in the last cycle). Other sources have reported significant deficits since 2022 and point to them as the main cause of the high prices.

The USDA FAS data is very comprehensive, useful, and accessible, free of charge. The database is particularly well-suited for various types of analysis. However, systematic bias in the data diminishes its value. We compared the USDA FAS data with that of the ICO (less accessible, less user-friendly, and now almost entirely chargeable), which exhibits a similar but reverse bias: the ICO most often reports a deficit. Averaging the two sources is a simple way to get closer to the truth.

FAS USDA has programmed the release of their annual report on global coffee supply and demand for July 22, which normally is released in June.

Jos Algra is an international consultant with more than 40 years of experience in coffee and working with producer organisations.

This blog was originally published in Spanish in Claase:

Análisis de los precios del café

Remote technical assistance reaches six cooperatives in Eastern DRC

Last Month, we launched our Beyco training program for six French-speaking coffee cooperatives from Eastern DRC as part of the Progreso-Beyco remote Technical Assistance program on data management, EUDR compliance, and traceability reporting. ​

This support is made possible through a partnership between Agriterra DRC and Progreso Foundation, where Agriterra is supporting these cooperatives to access and use the Beyco Farmer Platform. Through this collaboration, six coffee cooperatives in Eastern DRC will receive remote technical assistance to strengthen their data management systems, improve traceability, and prepare for compliance with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for a period of 1 year ending July 2027.

The partnership responds to two key challenges faced by farmer organizations in remote areas: the high cost of on-site technical support and the increasing difficulty of travel due to security and health-related constraints, including the recent Ebola outbreak concerns in Eastern DRC. By providing remote assistance through Beyco, cooperatives in hard-to-reach areas can continue receiving essential support while reducing the overall cost of EUDR compliance.

For Progreso, this partnership represents an important step toward achieving our mission of strengthening the market position of smallholder farmer producer organizations by providing accessible digital solutions for farmer registration, traceability, data management, and compliance reporting. It demonstrates how digital platforms combined with targeted technical assistance can help cooperatives overcome barriers and participate more effectively in sustainable global markets.

For the supported cooperatives, this means gaining access to practical tools and knowledge that enable them to manage farmer data more effectively, strengthen traceability systems, generate compliance reports, and confidently meet the growing requirements of international buyers and regulatory frameworks such as the EUDR.

For Agriterra and other development partners, this partnership demonstrates a cost-effective approach to supporting more farmer organizations to maintain and access international markets. By leveraging digital solutions and remote technical assistance, development partners can extend their impact to more cooperatives, including those in challenging operational environments, while making efficient use of available resources.

Together, Agriterra and Progreso-Beyco are demonstrating how partnerships, technology, and capacity building can support smallholder farmers and their organizations in building resilient, transparent, and sustainable supply chains.

How do you know a development program has truly succeeded?

Written by Ayub Asingataba: Program Manager East Africa

How do you know a development program has truly succeeded: When others come to learn from it. That thought stayed with me as Wageningen University & Research, one of the world’s leading agricultural universities, visited Dukunde Kawa Musasa Coffee Cooperative in Rwanda. The purpose of the visit was not to evaluate another donor-funded project. Instead, Dukunde Kawa is being studied as a Master’s-level case study of how a farmer cooperative can successfully transition from aid to a sustainable, competitive business. To me, that distinction matters.


Too often, development is measured by activities completed, budgets spent, or reports submitted. But the true measure of success is much simpler: Can an institution continue to grow, compete, and create value long after external support has ended? Dukunde Kawa demonstrates that it can.

Over the years, Progreso Foundation has partnered with the cooperative to strengthen governance, financial management, business planning, and investment readiness. Through this partnership, Dukunde Kawa has expanded access to finance, diversified farmer income sources, strengthened its presence in international markets, and contributed to more than a 25% increase in farmer incomes. These are not simply project outputs—they are evidence of a cooperative building long-term resilience and creating lasting value for its members.

As Miel observed during the visit: “Dukunde Kawa shows that when cooperatives receive the right support, they transition from aid to sustainable businesses that compete globally” That observation captures why this visit mattered. Today, Dukunde Kawa is no longer benefiting from development support. It is contributing to global knowledge. The fact that one of the world’s leading agricultural universities has chosen the cooperative as a case study sends a powerful message: strong producer organizations are not only engines of rural development; they are models of innovation, resilience, and sustainable business.

This visit also reinforced another lesson for me. Success is when cooperatives can attract investment, compete in international markets, improve member incomes, adapt to changing market and climate conditions, and inspire others to follow their example. As Progreso Foundation, we were honored to host the Wageningen University delegation and facilitate this exchange of knowledge. We hope the lessons from Dukunde Kawa will inspire similar transformations across coffee-growing communities in Rwanda, Uganda, and beyond.

The greatest legacy of development is not the projects we complete. It is the institutions that continue to thrive, create opportunities for their members, and become examples for the world to learn from.